Energy pricing in Europe

The future of energy pricing in Europe: The rise of renewable energy and load following

The energy distribution in Europe is evolving as energy policy, technology, and market forces converge to shape the continent’s future. Fundamental changes can happen in an instant. Belgium’s energy regulator, CREG, called for a joint investigation with France into significant cuts in French power exports, which have impacted energy prices throughout Europe. Likewise, solar generation in particular in Spain has caused negative prices impacting the income of PPA asset owners.  Such disparities affect the economic and operational stability of the energy markets in these regions as well as the returns from investors in renewable assets.

renewable energy map EU
Renewable energy map of europe

In Europe, the surge in renewable energy production, highlighted by the European Parliament this year, has led to the adoption of the EU Solar Standard under the European Performance of Buildings Directive. Starting in 2026, this mandate will require solar installations on new buildings and public bodies to retrofit PV systems on their existing structures.

The Emergence of Duck Curves in Europe

As renewable energy use increases globally, a balanced dynamic is emerging between energy prices and consumer behaviour in regions such as California, Hawaii, Germany, Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands. Particularly during the summer, energy prices tend to stabilize, influenced by consumers adopting load-following practices. This phenomenon, first identified by the US Energy Information Administration, is known as the duck curve.

California's duck
California's duck curve

Solar energy provides a fairly predictable reduction in net load in tropical/warm climates and an erratic reduction in net loads in temperate climates during the summer. Between sunrise and sunset, the adoption of solar energy capacity is increasing. As more and more solar power is generated, the duck curve deepens.

The ideal response to the duck curve is that customers, whether they are individuals, businesses, or industries, adjust their energy usage based on the availability and cost of energy, aligning their consumption patterns with times when energy is cheaper and more plentiful.

The concept of load following is widely adopted across various industries and countries. For instance, according to Power Magazine, Germany has seen a shift from the traditional duck curve to what’s now referred to as a canyon curve over time.

This transformation signifies that dispatchable resources are minimised during daylight hours, necessitating significant flexibility to navigate the steep ingress and egress of the canyon curve to maintain energy supply and demand balance.

The energy duck curve
Duck curve and canyon curve

This situation necessitates that power producers either decommission resources that cannot be quickly ramped up to handle the sharp decline at sunset, or they must reduce solar output, thereby wasting cost-free, clean energy. Moreover, the increasing steepness of the canyon walls demands that energy companies enhance their agility using the remaining limited resources.

Adaptable Industries Leading the Way

Industries with variable energy requirements—those experiencing fluctuations seasonally or daily—are increasingly able to adjust their energy consumption based on pricing signals. Take, for example, manufacturing firms that consume substantial energy; they may increase production in the summer months to capitalise on plentiful solar energy and reduce output in the winter.

Likewise, smaller businesses and particular consumer segments are also adept at adapting. Retail businesses, for example, may extend operating hours during the festive season when there is a surge in customer traffic, thus maximising their energy usage for the most profitable periods. These adjustments are not solely for cost reduction; they aim to enhance efficiency and tailor energy use to actual business needs.

Rethinking Energy Management Models

The movement towards load following poses an important question: Do we need new policies or regulatory oversight and the need for clear guidelines on when and how much do we utilise renewable energy? Or can businesses and consumers manage this dynamic directly with energy suppliers?

The traditional aggregator model involves third parties that help manage and negotiate energy loads across multiple customers, adding a layer of complexity and potential costs. There is a compelling case for businesses and consumers to collaborate directly with energy suppliers to manage their energy needs. This direct interaction could enhance transparency, reduce costs, and increase the efficiency of energy use.

Using smart technologies and real-time data, suppliers and consumers can dynamically tailor their strategies, thus eliminating the need for extra layers of management. This approach includes tools like time-of-use rates and programs designed to shift electricity use from evening to midday. Additionally, various energy storage options, including batteries, storage systems, hydrogen production, and fuel cells, can be integrated. Several innovative technologies are also being developed to store solar energy from the afternoon until after sunset.

What is the Duck Curve?
Electricity demand, grid and solar

Towards a More Adaptive Energy Future

As we look to the future, the energy sector is poised for a transformative shift. The adoption of load following by consumers and businesses is fast becoming a reality. This model promotes a more sustainable and economically sensible approach to energy consumption, which could lead to more stable energy prices and a more resilient energy system.

At Utilidex, we offer energy, carbon and trade date sets that when married with energy demand and price curves help provide the data sets for progress through the energy transition. All the data sets outlined including weather data are retrievable via our system. When we upload traditional non-utility data, floor space, type of business, standby fuel or battery assets as well as onsite generation the data held within our system becomes the primary set of data for new projects or new consumption behaviours.

Bringing your key data together into a single ‘Energy Manager’ dashboard is fundamental to commencing the energy optimisation journey. It also helps and supports business collaboration between not just consultants, suppliers and customers, but a wider group of energy participants including original equipment manufacturers, carbon tax specialists, electrical and mechanical engineers, finance partners and asset owners.

Key Features

  • A digital energy manager which provides useful actionable insights
  • GHG and CRC reporting by both billed and actual consumption (CO2e, CO2, CH4, N2O)
  • Budget variance tracking
  • Advanced value-led data visualisations filterable by portfolio, group and at site level
  • Renewable assets performance monitoring and modelling
  • Weather and consumption/cost regression analysis
  • An extensive suite (50+) of downloadable reports including consumption, vacant energy and energy intensity
  • Dashboards for site level performance indicators and league tabling

If you are interested in how Utildiex can accelerate your net-zero goal, feel free to get in touch. Please don’t hesitate to contact Mike McCloskey at Mike.McCloskey@Utilidex.com. We’re here to answer any questions you may have about reaching net zero.

From Measurement to Management

Data collection is only the beginning. The real value comes from turning that data into actionable insight.

With fuels, oils, power, and gas now presented together, organisations can begin to ask more strategic questions:

  • How do fuel-based emissions compare to those from grid electricity?
  • Which sites or vehicle fleets present the greatest decarbonisation opportunity?
  • How would switching from heating oil to renewable heat, or from diesel to EVs, affect total Scope 1 and 2 emissions?
  • What would be the financial impact of such transitions under different energy-price scenarios?

This capability moves Utilidex customers beyond simple measurement toward decision-enablement. The platform becomes not just a system of record but a system of advantage, a digital partner that informs investment choices and supports the roadmap to net zero.

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Enabling the Energy Transition

The integration of fuel data also empowers energy suppliers, consultants, and partners to play a more proactive role in their clients’ decarbonisation journeys.

For Suppliers

Suppliers can now understand the fuel mix across an entire portfolio, not just the electricity or gas they provide. This insight allows them to support carbon-saving initiatives aligned with customer goals, such as renewable-heat projects, gas substitution strategies, or hybrid energy solutions. By aligning commodity supply with decarbonisation targets, suppliers become trusted partners in the energy transition rather than mere providers of kilowatt-hours or litres.

For End Customers

End users, whether public-sector estates, industrial operators, or multi-site corporates, gain a holistic picture of their current position. They can assess their total emissions baseline, model potential pathways, and set priorities grounded in data. Without this integrated view, it’s impossible to know which actions deliver the greatest impact or return on investment.

For Carbon Consultants and Engineers

Engineering-led carbon consultants can overlay technical feasibility assessments onto the same dataset, supporting clients in identifying retrofit options, fuel-switching opportunities, and new-build energy strategies. A unified platform reduces time spent consolidating data and allows more time for what matters, designing practical pathways to decarbonisation.

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Compliance and Reporting: Simplified and Strengthened

Reporting is another area of immediate value. With Utilidex, organisations no longer need to juggle multiple spreadsheets or separate systems to satisfy disclosure obligations.

The platform brings natural gas, power, and fuels into a single reporting environment, producing automated outputs aligned with regulatory and voluntary frameworks. This unified dataset supports:

  • Streamlined SECR and ESOS submissions with verified emission factors.
  • Corporate ESG reporting under CDP, GRESB, and TCFD frameworks.
  • Consistent audit trails for internal and external verification.
  • Portfolio benchmarking, enabling performance comparison across regions, assets, and business units.

As regulatory requirements tighten, the ability to demonstrate accuracy, completeness, and traceability in carbon data will become a key differentiator. Utilidex provides that assurance.

A Step Toward Predictive Carbon Management

Looking ahead, integration opens the door to predictive and AI-assisted carbon management. With all commodities consolidated in one environment, Utilidex can apply machine learning and analytics to forecast future emissions trajectories, test “what-if” transition scenarios, and model cost-to-carbon trade-offs.

This evolution mirrors what’s happening in energy trading, where the shift from reactive systems to predictive intelligence is transforming decision-making. The same principle applies here: carbon data that once provided visibility can now deliver foresight.

Imagine being able to see not just where your emissions have been, but where they are likely to go under different procurement or investment strategies. That is the future Utilidex is enabling.

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From Visibility to Decision-Enablement

For years, carbon reporting has been about compliance, producing spreadsheets, aligning factors, and submitting disclosures. But as the energy transition accelerates, organisations need tools that don’t just report but guide.

By combining fuels, oils, natural gas, and electricity within a single system, Utilidex transforms carbon accounting into carbon intelligence. The platform delivers:

  • Visibility – comprehensive data coverage across all energy sources.
  • Insight – unified analytics to identify reduction opportunities.
  • Enablement – actionable information to support investment and operational decisions.

This marks a fundamental shift, from monitoring to managing, from compliance to strategy.

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Defining the Next Era of Energy Data Management

The addition of fuels and oils data is more than a feature; it’s a statement about where the industry is headed. Energy management is evolving from siloed monitoring to integrated, AI-ready ecosystems that inform every stage of the decarbonisation journey.

In this new era:

  • Suppliers collaborate with customers to design low-carbon supply portfolios.
  • Consultants use unified data to deliver engineering-based transition roadmaps.
  • Customers gain the confidence to make investment decisions backed by accurate, consolidated evidence.

As energy systems become more complex, decentralised, digitised, and decarbonised, the ability to connect commodities, convert data, and create actionable intelligence will define leadership.

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Looking Ahead

At Utilidex, our goal is simple: to make carbon and energy data work harder for our customers. The expansion of our platform to capture fuels and oils brings us another step closer to that goal.

By delivering a unified view across electricity, gas, and fuels, we help organisations turn information into insight and insight into action, supporting smarter, faster, and more confident decisions on the path to net zero.

This is not just about better reporting; it’s about empowering the energy transition, one dataset at a time.

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